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arXiv · 2009.03649

The Role of Asymptomatic Individuals in the COVID-19 Pandemic via Complex Networks

Leonardo Stella·Alejandro Pinel Martínez·Dario Bauso·Patrizio Colaneri
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Abstract

Recent seroprevalence studies have tried to estimate the real number of asymptomatic cases affected by COVID-19. It is of paramount importance to understand the impact of these infections in order to prevent a second wave. This study aims to model the interactions in the population by means of a complex network and to shed some light on the effectiveness of localised control measures in Italy in relation to the school opening in mid-September. The formulation of an epidemiological predictive model is given: the advantage of using this model lies in that it discriminates between asymptomatic and symptomatic cases of COVID-19 as the interactions with these two categories of infected individuals are captured separately, allowing for a study on the impact of asymptomatic cases. This model is then extended to a structured nonhomogeneous version by means of the Watts-Strogatz complex network, which is adopted widely to model societal interactions as it holds the small world property. Finally, a case study on the situation in Italy is given: first the homogeneous model is used to compare the official data with the data of the recent seroprevalence study from Istat; second, in view of the return to school in mid-September, a study at regional level is conducted. The results of this study highlight the importance of coordinating the deployment of appropriate control measures that take into account the role of asymptomatic infections, especially in younger individuals, and inter-regional connectivity in Italy.

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Leonardo Stella, Alejandro Pinel Martínez, Dario Bauso, Patrizio Colaneri. 2020-09-08. The Role of Asymptomatic Individuals in the COVID-19 Pandemic via Complex Networks. https://doi.org/10.1137/20m1373335

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