High dimensional PCA: a new model selection criterion

Abstract

Given a random sample from a multivariate population, estimating the number of large eigenvalues of the population covariance matrix is an important problem in Statistics with wide applications in many areas. In the context of Principal Component Analysis (PCA), the linear combinations of the original variables having the largest amounts of variation are determined by this number. In this paper, we study the high dimensional asymptotic regime where the number of variables grows at the same rate as the number of observations, and use the spiked covariance model proposed in Johnstone (2001), under which the problem reduces to model selection. Our focus is on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) which is known to be strongly consistent from the work of Bai et al. (2018). However, Bai et al. (2018) requires a certain "gap condition" ensuring the dominant eigenvalues to be above a threshold strictly larger than the BBP threshold (Baik et al. (2005), both quantities depending on the limiting ratio of the number of variables and observations. It is well-known that, below the BBP threshold, a spiked covariance structure becomes indistinguishable from one with no spikes. Thus the strong consistency of AIC requires some extra signal strength. In this paper, we investigate whether consistency continues to hold even if the "gap" is made smaller. We show that strong consistency under arbitrarily small gap is achievable if we alter the penalty term of AIC suitably depending on the target gap. Furthermore, another intuitive alteration of the penalty can indeed make the gap exactly zero, although we can only achieve weak consistency in this case. We compare the two newly-proposed estimators with other existing estimators in the literature via extensive simulation studies, and show, by suitably calibrating our proposals, that a significant improvement in terms of mean-squared error is achievable.