Study of genetic mutations and dynamic spread of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and prediction of its evolution according to the SIR model

Hamieh Mohamad; Doumit Mary; Toufaily Joumana; Hamieh Tayssir

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arXiv · 2011.06694

Study of genetic mutations and dynamic spread of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and prediction of its evolution according to the SIR model

Hamieh Mohamad·Doumit Mary·Toufaily Joumana·Hamieh Tayssir

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Abstract

In this work, we aim to study that the dynamics behavior for cumulative number of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic can provide information on the overall behavior of the spread over daily time.The cumulative data can be synthesized in an empirical form obtained from a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model previously studied on a Euclidean network. From the study we carried out, we can conclude that the SIR model on the Euclidean network can reproduce data from several countries with a deviation of precision for given parameter values. This gives an insight into the different agents that influence the behavior of SARS-CoV-2 especially during the virus mutation period. We are thus trying to analyze the effect of genetic mutations in different countries, and how a specific mutation can make the virus more contagious.

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Hamieh Mohamad, Doumit Mary, Toufaily Joumana, Hamieh Tayssir. 2020-11-13. Study of genetic mutations and dynamic spread of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and prediction of its evolution according to the SIR model. https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.06694

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