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arXiv · 2011.13174

Explainable Tensorized Neural Ordinary Differential Equations forArbitrary-step Time Series Prediction

Penglei Gao·Xi Yang·Rui Zhang·Kaizhu Huang
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Abstract

We propose a continuous neural network architecture, termed Explainable Tensorized Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ETN-ODE), for multi-step time series prediction at arbitrary time points. Unlike the existing approaches, which mainly handle univariate time series for multi-step prediction or multivariate time series for single-step prediction, ETN-ODE could model multivariate time series for arbitrary-step prediction. In addition, it enjoys a tandem attention, w.r.t. temporal attention and variable attention, being able to provide explainable insights into the data. Specifically, ETN-ODE combines an explainable Tensorized Gated Recurrent Unit (Tensorized GRU or TGRU) with Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE). The derivative of the latent states is parameterized with a neural network. This continuous-time ODE network enables a multi-step prediction at arbitrary time points. We quantitatively and qualitatively demonstrate the effectiveness and the interpretability of ETN-ODE on five different multi-step prediction tasks and one arbitrary-step prediction task. Extensive experiments show that ETN-ODE can lead to accurate predictions at arbitrary time points while attaining best performance against the baseline methods in standard multi-step time series prediction.

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Penglei Gao, Xi Yang, Rui Zhang, Kaizhu Huang. 2020-11-26. Explainable Tensorized Neural Ordinary Differential Equations forArbitrary-step Time Series Prediction. https://doi.org/10.1109/tkde.2022.3167536

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