The questionable impact of population-wide public testing in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence in the Slovak Republic

Jozef Černák

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arXiv · 2101.00613

The questionable impact of population-wide public testing in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence in the Slovak Republic

Jozef Černák

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Abstract

Mina and Andersen, authors of the Perspectives in Science: COVID-19 Testing: One Size Does Not Fit All have referred to results and adopted conclusions from recently published governmental report Pavelka et al. "The effectiveness of population wide, rapid antigen test based screening in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence in Slovakia" without critical consideration, and rigorous verification. We demonstrate that the authors refer to conclusions that are not supported by experimental data. Further, there is a lack of objective, independent information and studies regarding the widespread, public testing program currently in force in the Slovak Republic. We offer an alternative explanation of observed data as they have been provided by the Slovak Republic government to fill this information gap. We also provide explanations and conclusions that more accurately describe viral spread dynamics. Drawing from available public data and our simple but rigorous analysis, we show that it is not possible to make clear conclusions about any positive impact of the public testing program in the Slovak Republic. In particular, it is not possible to conclude that this testing program forces the curve down for the SARS-CoV-2 virus outbreak. We think that Pavelka et al. did not consider many fundamental phenomena in their proposed computer simulations and data analysis - in particular: the complexity of SARS-CoV-2 virus spread. In complex spatio-temporal dynamical systems, small spatio-temporal fluctuations can dramatically change the dynamics of virus spreading on large scales.

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Jozef Černák. 2021-01-03. The questionable impact of population-wide public testing in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence in the Slovak Republic. https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.00613

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