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arXiv · 2103.11651

Evaluating glioma growth predictions as a forward ranking problem

Karin A. van Garderen·Sebastian R. van der Voort·Maarten M. J. Wijnenga·Fatih Incekara·Georgios Kapsas·Renske Gahrmann·Ahmad Alafandi·Marion Smits·Stefan Klein
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Abstract

The problem of tumor growth prediction is challenging, but promising results have been achieved with both model-driven and statistical methods. In this work, we present a framework for the evaluation of growth predictions that focuses on the spatial infiltration patterns, and specifically evaluating a prediction of future growth. We propose to frame the problem as a ranking problem rather than a segmentation problem. Using the average precision as a metric, we can evaluate the results with segmentations while using the full spatiotemporal prediction. Furthermore, by separating the model goodness-of-fit from future predictive performance, we show that in some cases, a better fit of model parameters does not guarantee a better the predictive power.

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Karin A. van Garderen, Sebastian R. van der Voort, Maarten M. J. Wijnenga, Fatih Incekara, Georgios Kapsas, Renske Gahrmann, Ahmad Alafandi, Marion Smits, Stefan Klein. 2021-03-22. Evaluating glioma growth predictions as a forward ranking problem. https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.11651

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