Search arXivSearch

arXiv · 2105.06360

A detailed analysis of GW190521 with phenomenological waveform models

Abstract

In this paper we present an extensive analysis of the GW190521 gravitational wave event with the current (fourth) generation of phenomenological waveform models for binary black hole coalescences. GW190521 stands out from other events since only a few wave cycles are observable. This leads to a number of challenges, one being that such short signals are prone to not resolve approximate waveform degeneracies, which may result in multi-modal posterior distributions. The family of waveform models we use includes a new fast time-domain model IMRPhenomTPHM, which allows us extensive tests of different priors and robustness with respect to variations in the waveform model, including the content of spherical harmonic modes. We clarify some issues raised in a recent paper [Nitz&Capano], associated with possible support for a high-mass ratio source, but confirm their finding of a multi-modal posterior distribution, albeit with important differences in the statistical significance of the peaks. In particular, we find that the support for both masses being outside the PISN mass-gap, and the support for an intermediate mass ratio binary are drastically reduced with respect to what Nitz&Capano found. We also provide updated probabilities for associating GW190521 to the potential electromagnetic counterpart from ZTF.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Héctor Estellés, Sascha Husa, Marta Colleoni, Maite Mateu-Lucena, Maria de Lluc Planas, Cecilio García-Quirós, David Keitel, Antoni Ramos-Buades, Ajit Kumar Mehta, Alessandra Buonanno, Serguei Ossokine. 2021-05-13. A detailed analysis of GW190521 with phenomenological waveform models. https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ac33a0

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

Electrovacuum Black Hole Uniqueness

We prove the black hole uniqueness conjecture in the axially symmetric, stationary, electrovacuum setting, subject to the refined asymptotic analysis of the associated singular harmonic maps, which includes an analyticity hypothesis at the axes. More precisely, it is shown that any asymptotically flat solution of the Einstein--Maxwell equations in this class, with more than one black hole horizon component is either: Majumdar--Papapetrou, up to a duality rotation, in which case all logarithmic angle defects vanish, or every finite axis rod logarithmic angle defect is strictly negative and hence every interaction force is strictly attractive. The proof extends the singular harmonic map method used for vacuum Kerr uniqueness in [18].

gr-qc

Constraining Modified Mass-to-Horizon Cosmology Through Primordial Inflationary Observables

We investigate slow-roll inflation in a modified cosmological framework inspired by a generalized mass-to-horizon relation (MHR), $M=\gamma {c^2 L^n}/{G}$, where $n$ is a real parameter and $\gamma$ a dimensional constant. Using Padmanabhan's emergence paradigm, we derive the modified Friedmann equations for a flat FRW universe and analyze the dynamics of a canonical scalar field (inflaton) under the slow-roll approximation. We study the resulting inflationary phenomenology for power-law and Starobinsky potentials. For power-law potentials, the MHR modification fails to reconcile these models with current CMB constraints on $r$ and $n_s$. In contrast, Starobinsky inflation exhibits significant sensitivity to deviations from $n=1$. A perturbative analysis ($n=1+\Delta$) yields corrections to inflationary observables. We observe that the scalar power-spectrum normalization, under a fixed-Starobinsky prescription, imposes the stringent constraint $0.960 \lesssim n \lesssim 1.040$ for $N=60$ efolds. This is considerably tighter than spectral-index bounds. Our results establish inflation, particularly Starobinsky-like models, as a sensitive probe of generalized horizon thermodynamics and departures from standard MHR scaling.

gr-qc

Improving the Sensitivity of Gravitational Wave Detection with Weighted Conformal Prediction

In the last decade, kilometre-scale interferometric gravitational-wave detectors have observed hundreds of compact binary mergers, the majority of which are binary black holes. However, the data are noise-dominated, and multiple independent search algorithms (pipelines) are used to enhance sensitivity and improve robustness. Rather than the standard approach of selecting the most significant pipeline output, we combine the outputs from all pipelines using a conformal prediction-based framework to provide statistically rigorous confidence estimates for candidate events. While combining pipelines improves sensitivity and ranking robustness, it requires a principled statistical framework that remains valid as data properties evolve across observing runs. A key challenge is distribution shifts between simulated datasets used for training and calibration and the real, unlabelled, observations used for testing, which can invalidate coverage guarantees and bias confidence estimates. In this work, we address this challenge by incorporating likelihood-ratio reweighting into our conformal prediction framework to account for covariate shift. Using mock datasets containing simulated signals, we demonstrate that weighted conformal prediction restores well-calibrated coverage under covariate shift and increases the confidence of events near the detection threshold, recovering true signals that would otherwise be missed.

gr-qc