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arXiv · 2106.13295

Stochastic modeling of scientific impact

M. V. Simkin
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Abstract

Recent research has found that select scientists have a disproportional share of highly cited papers. Researchers reasoned that this could not have happened if success in science was random and introduced a hidden parameter Q, or talent, to explain this finding. So, the talented high-Q scientists have many high impact papers. Here I show that an upgrade of an old random citation copying model could also explain this finding. In the new model the probability of citation copying is not the same for all papers but is proportional to the logarithm of the total number of citations to all papers of its author. Numerical simulations of the model give results similar to the empirical findings of the Q-factor article.

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M. V. Simkin. 2021-06-24. Stochastic modeling of scientific impact. https://doi.org/10.1209/0295-5075%2F134%2F48004

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