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arXiv · 2109.06056

CoviHawkes: Temporal Point Process and Deep Learning based Covid-19 forecasting for India

Ambedkar Dukkipati·Tony Gracious·Shubham Gupta
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Abstract

Lockdowns are one of the most effective measures for containing the spread of a pandemic. Unfortunately, they involve a heavy financial and emotional toll on the population that often outlasts the lockdown itself. This article argues in favor of ``local'' lockdowns, which are lockdowns focused on regions currently experiencing an outbreak. We propose a machine learning tool called CoviHawkes based on temporal point processes, called CoviHawkes that predicts the daily case counts for Covid-19 in India at the national, state, and district levels. Our short-term predictions ($<30$ days) may be helpful for policymakers in identifying regions where a local lockdown must be proactively imposed to arrest the spread of the virus. Our long-term predictions (up to a few months) simulate the progression of the pandemic under various lockdown conditions, thereby providing a noisy indicator for a potential third wave of cases in India. Extensive experimental results validate the performance of our tool at all levels.

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Ambedkar Dukkipati, Tony Gracious, Shubham Gupta. 2021-09-08. CoviHawkes: Temporal Point Process and Deep Learning based Covid-19 forecasting for India. https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.06056

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