PI -- Multimodal Planetary Defense

Abstract

We present a practical and very effective method of planetary defense that allows for extremely short mitigation time scales, if required, as well as long time scale mitigation. One system allows for virtually any required defense mode. In general, it uses much less launch mass with vastly shorter required response time than classical deflection techniques The method uses an array of small hypervelocity kinetic penetrators that pulverize and disassemble an asteroid or small comet. This approach works in both long warning time, as well as in short warning scenarios with intercepts of minutes to days before impact. In longer time intercept scenarios, the disassembled asteroid fragments largely miss the Earth. In short intercept scenarios, the asteroid fragments of maximum $\sim$10-meter diameter allow the Earth's atmosphere to act as a "beam dump" with fragment burn up/ air burst, with energy primarily going into spatially and temporally de-correlated shock waves. The effectiveness of the approach depends on the intercept time and size of the asteroid but allows for effective defense against asteroids in the 20-1000m diameter class and could virtually eliminate the threat. While not recommended, a 20m diameter asteroid ($\sim$0.5Mt, similar to Chelyabinsk) can be mitigated with a 100s prior to impact intercept with a 10m/s disruption. With ~1m/s internal disruption, a 5 hour prior to impact intercept of a 50m diameter asteroid ($\sim$10Mt yield, similar to Tunguska), a 1 day prior to impact intercept of 100m diameter asteroid ($\sim$100Mt yield), a 20 day prior to impact intercept of Apophis ($\sim$370m diameter, $\sim$4Gt yield). The use of active (explosive) penetrators, including nuclear, allows the same system to mitigate extremely large threats. A "single launcher" solution to planetary defense using existing launch vehicles that achieve positive C3 becomes a viable option.