Impact of Massive Binary Star and Cosmic Evolution on Gravitational Wave Observations II: Double Compact Object Rates and Properties

Abstract

Making the most of the rapidly increasing population of gravitational-wave detections of black hole (BH) and neutron star (NS) mergers requires comparing observations with population synthesis predictions. In this work we investigate the combined impact from the key uncertainties in population synthesis modelling of the isolated binary evolution channel: the physical processes in massive binary-star evolution and the star formation history as a function of metallicity, $Z$, and redshift $z, \mathcal{S}(Z,z)$. Considering these uncertainties we create 560 different publicly available model realizations and calculate the rate and distribution characteristics of detectable BHBH, BHNS, and NSNS mergers. We find that our stellar evolution and $\mathcal{S}(Z,z)$ variations can impact the predicted intrinsic and detectable merger rates by factors $10^2$-$10^4$. We find that BHBH rates are dominantly impacted by $\mathcal{S}(Z,z)$ variations, NSNS rates by stellar evolution variations and BHNS rates by both. We then consider the combined impact from all uncertainties considered in this work on the detectable mass distribution shapes (chirp mass, individual masses and mass ratio). We find that the BHNS mass distributions are predominantly impacted by massive binary-star evolution changes. For BHBH and NSNS we find that both uncertainties are important. We also find that the shape of the delay time and birth metallicity distributions are typically dominated by the choice of $\mathcal{S}(Z,z)$ for BHBH, BHNS and NSNS. We identify several examples of robust features in the mass distributions predicted by all 560 models, such that we expect more than 95% of BHBH detections to contain a BH $\gtrsim 8\,\rm{M}_{\odot}$ and have mass ratios $\lesssim 4$. Our work demonstrates that it is essential to consider a wide range of allowed models to study double compact object merger rates and properties.