Source Detection via Contact Tracing in the Presence of Asymptomatic Patients

Abstract

Inferring the source of a diffusion in a large network of agents is a difficult but feasible task, if a few agents act as sensors revealing the time at which they got hit by the diffusion. A main limitation of current source detection algorithms is that they assume full knowledge of the contact network, which is rarely the case, especially for epidemics, where the source is called patient zero. Inspired by recent contact tracing algorithms, we propose a new framework, which we call Source Detection via Contact Tracing Framework (SDCTF). In the SDCTF, the source detection task starts at the time of the first hospitalization, and initially we have no knowledge about the contact network other than the identity of the first hospitalized agent. We may then explore the network by contact queries, and obtain symptom onset times by test queries in an adaptive way. We also assume that some of the agents may be asymptomatic, and therefore cannot reveal their symptom onset time. Our goal is to find patient zero with as few contact and test queries as possible. We propose two local search algorithms for the SDCTF: the LS algorithm is more data-efficient, but can fail to find the true source if many asymptomatic agents are present, whereas the LS+ algorithm is more robust to asymptomatic agents. By simulations we show that both LS and LS+ outperform state of the art adaptive and non-adaptive source detection algorithms adapted to the SDCTF, even though these baseline algorithms have full access to the contact network. Extending the theory of random exponential trees, we analytically approximate the probability of success of the LS/ LS+ algorithms, and we show that our analytic results match the simulations. Finally, we benchmark our algorithms on the Data-driven COVID-19 Simulator developed by Lorch et al., which is the first time source detection algorithms are tested on such a complex dataset.