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arXiv · 2201.07294

Daily-Resolved Lightning Climatology of the Eastern Alpine Region at the Kilometer Scale

Thorsten Simon·Georg J. Mayr
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Abstract

Lightning flashes are rare albeit hazardous events. Despite this scarcity, generalized additive models (GAMs) succeed in producing a climatology of lightning occurrence for the eastern Alps and surrounding lowlands at an unprecedented resolution of 1\,km$^2$ for each day of April through September with data from the ALDIS lightning location system. The GAM adds the effects of seasonality, jaggedness of the terrain, and seasonally varying effects of elevation and region, thus combining information from analysis cells sharing similar characteristics. The probability of a cloud-to-ground discharge over 1\,km$^2$ on a given day is typically less than 1\,\% with a rapid increase in spring, followed by a plateau and a gentler tapering-off in fall. Probabilities early are lower at high elevations but increase once their snow cover is gone. Regional patterns of lightning also vary with season with an overall southward shift later in the year but more complex details. Grid cells with jagged topography have a higher probability of lightning.

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Thorsten Simon, Georg J. Mayr. 2022-01-18. Daily-Resolved Lightning Climatology of the Eastern Alpine Region at the Kilometer Scale. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00502-022-01032-1

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