How might Driver Licensing and Vehicle Registration evolve if we adopt Autonomous Cars and Digital Identification?

Abstract

It has been said that fewer or greater numbers of driver's licenses may be issued in future. However, when we extrapolate based on comparisons to other transport domains that have high levels of automation like aviation, the future for driver's licenses may not be so up in the air. Introduction of autonomous systems in aviation frequently leads to pilot retraining, and while modern commercial jets are generally sufficiently capable to take off, fly to their destination and land with little in the way of human intervention, pilots are still required and every pilot must hold a current license with ratings for the types of plane they command. Contemporary in-service training for commercial pilots has shifted focus from extended practicing of general flight skills like navigation and radio use. Pilots now spend many hours each year in simulators training to building knowledge, experience and thus muscle memory for how to respond when the airplane's extensive interconnected collection of semi- and fully-autonomous fly-by-wire systems go awry. While the plane itself is actually flying for much of the time during most flights today, the pilot's license still attests to their ability to assume full control and complete the flight where it becomes necessary. We contend a similar future may exist for driver training and licensure.