The effect of global warming on Western Mediterranean seagrasses: towards an agent-based modelling approach

Abstract

Seagrasses are key structural elements in coastal ecosystems, and studying how temperature affects these species is crucial to anticipate the implications of global warming. In this work, we use an empirically-based numerical model to study the combined dynamics of {\it Posidonia oceanica} and {\it Cymodocea nodosa} and their resilience to sea warming. The model is parametrised using seagrass growth rates measured at the Western Mediterranean Sea. Under favorable growth conditions, our simulations predict the emergence of a coexistence region at the front between mono-specific meadows. This region can be characterised by its width and local shoot densities, which are found to depend on the coupling parameter between {\it Posidonia oceanica} and {\it Cymodocea nodosa} species. Such regions have been empirically observed in Ses Olles de Son Saura (Balearic Islands, Western Mediterranean Sea). A comparison between the field measurements at the study site with the model predictions has been used to fit the value of the coupling parameter. Field data also relates the width of the coexistence region to the average length of {\it Posidonia oceanica} leaves at the front. Remarkably, a linear relationship is found between the coupling parameter and the leaf length. In the presence of sea warming, the model predicts an exponential decay in the population of {\it Posidonia oceanica}, which is highly sensitive to temperature. This behaviour is a direct consequence of the clonal nature of the plant and can be characterised by the model parameters. Considering a scenario of high greenhouse emissions, our model forecasts that {\it Posidonia oceanica} meadows will lose 70$\%$ of their population by the year $2050$. {\it Cymodocea nodosa}, with higher thermal resilience, acts as an opportunistic species conquering the space left by the degraded {\it Posidonia oceanica}.