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arXiv · 2206.02756

A stylized fact on the Mexico's mandate revocation 2022 that remains the 2006 presidential elections/ Un hecho estilizado en la revocación de mandato en México que recuerda las presidenciales de 2006

Hugo Hernández-Saldaña
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Abstract

Vote processes are the results of several complex interactions which are hard to separate in order to understand its role in the final result. The revocatory exercise performed in Mexico in 2022 allows an approximation to the Mexican dynamics of vote. Being a binary election (in principle) and the vote was mainly due to the political party in the government and the coercion of vote we have mainly only two dynamics of vote. In this work I report that the vote distribution for the NO at urn scale is similar to the one that appears in several elections for the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI for his Spanish acronym) and it is compatible with a Gamma distribution. We discuss similarities and two possible models for such a behavior, one based on the Traveling Salesperson Problem and other on a Fokker-Planck equation. Las votaciones son el resultado de varias interacciones complejas y que resulta difícil de separar para entender el papel que juegan en el resultado final. El ejercicio revocatorio llevado a cabo en México en el año 2022 permite una aproximación acotada a la dinámica de voto en México. Pues, en principio, es binaria y la votación fue fundamentalmente debida al partido en el gobierno y a la coerción del voto, siendo estas las principales dinámicas de voto. En éste trabajo reportamos que la distribución de voto por casilla para el NO que es parecida a la distribución que ha aparecido en diversas elecciones en votos para el Partido Revolucionario Institucional y es compatible con una distribución Gamma. Se discuten sus similitudes y dos posibles modelos para tal comportamiento, uno basado en el Problema del Agente Viajero (TSP, por sus sigla en inglés) y otro en una ecuación de Fokker-Planck.

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Hugo Hernández-Saldaña. 2022-06-06. A stylized fact on the Mexico's mandate revocation 2022 that remains the 2006 presidential elections/ Un hecho estilizado en la revocación de mandato en México que recuerda las presidenciales de 2006. https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.02756

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