Search arXiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2209.10802

Robust Forecasting for Robotic Control: A Game-Theoretic Approach

Shubhankar Agarwal·David Fridovich-Keil·Sandeep P. Chinchali
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Modern robots require accurate forecasts to make optimal decisions in the real world. For example, self-driving cars need an accurate forecast of other agents' future actions to plan safe trajectories. Current methods rely heavily on historical time series to accurately predict the future. However, relying entirely on the observed history is problematic since it could be corrupted by noise, have outliers, or not completely represent all possible outcomes. To solve this problem, we propose a novel framework for generating robust forecasts for robotic control. In order to model real-world factors affecting future forecasts, we introduce the notion of an adversary, which perturbs observed historical time series to increase a robot's ultimate control cost. Specifically, we model this interaction as a zero-sum two-player game between a robot's forecaster and this hypothetical adversary. We show that our proposed game may be solved to a local Nash equilibrium using gradient-based optimization techniques. Furthermore, we show that a forecaster trained with our method performs 30.14% better on out-of-distribution real-world lane change data than baselines.

Explore related subjects

cs.ROcs.LG

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Shubhankar Agarwal, David Fridovich-Keil, Sandeep P. Chinchali. 2023-04-05. Robust Forecasting for Robotic Control: A Game-Theoretic Approach. https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.10802

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

J-PARSE: Jacobian-based Projection Algorithm for Resolving Singularities Effectively in Inverse Kinematic Control of Serial Manipulators

J-PARSE is an algorithm for smooth first-order inverse kinematic control of a serial manipulator near kinematic singularities. The commanded end-effector velocity is interpreted component-wise, according to the available mobility in each dimension of the task space. First, a substitute ''Safety'' Jacobian matrix is created, keeping the aspect ratio of the manipulability ellipsoid above a threshold value. The desired velocity is then projected onto non-singular and singular directions, and the latter projection scaled down by a factor informed by the altered mobility. A right-inverse of the non-singular Safety Jacobian is applied to the modified command. In the absence of joint limits and collisions, this ensures safe transition into and out of low-mobility configurations, guaranteeing locally stable reaching behavior towards target poses within, on the boundary of, and outside the workspace. The behavior is further guaranteed to be locally asymptotically stable if the starting and target configurations are not exactly singular, even if they are nearly singular. Velocity control with J-PARSE is benchmarked against approaches from the literature, illustrating its use of a single tuning parameter to simultaneously achieve high reaching accuracy and stable behavior. Applications in teleoperation, servoing, and learning are demonstrated. Videos and code are available at https://jparse-manip.github.io/.

cs.RO↗
arXiv2026

NeMo-map: Neural Implicit Flow Fields for Spatio-Temporal Motion Mapping

Safe and efficient robot operation in complex human environments can benefit from good models of site-specific motion patterns. Maps of Dynamics (MoDs) provide such models by encoding statistical motion patterns in a map, but existing representations use discrete spatial sampling and typically require costly offline construction. We propose a continuous spatio-temporal MoD representation based on implicit neural functions that directly map coordinates to the parameters of a Semi-Wrapped Gaussian Mixture Model. This removes the need for discretization and imputation for unevenly sampled regions, enabling smooth generalization across both space and time. Evaluated on two public datasets with real-world people tracking data, our method achieves better accuracy of motion representation and smoother velocity distributions in sparse regions while still being computationally efficient, compared to available baselines. The proposed approach demonstrates a powerful and efficient way of modeling complex human motion patterns and high performance in the trajectory prediction downstream task. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/test-bai-cpu/nemo-map.

cs.RO↗
arXiv2026

Spatiotemporal Calibration of Doppler Velocity Logs for Underwater Robots

The calibration of extrinsic parameters and clock offsets between sensors for high-accuracy performance in underwater SLAM systems remains insufficiently explored. Existing methods for Doppler Velocity Log (DVL) calibration are either constrained to specific sensor configurations or rely on oversimplified assumptions, and none jointly estimate translational extrinsics and time offsets. We propose a Unified Iterative Calibration (UIC) framework for general DVL sensor setups, formulated as a Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) estimation with a Gaussian Process (GP) motion prior for high-fidelity motion interpolation. UIC alternates between efficient GP-based motion state updates and gradient-based calibration variable updates, supported by a provably statistically consistent sequential initialization scheme. The proposed UIC can be applied to IMU, cameras and other modalities as co-sensors. We release an open-source DVL-camera calibration toolbox. Beyond underwater applications, several aspects of UIC-such as the integration of GP priors for MAP-based calibration and the design of provably reliable initialization procedures-are broadly applicable to other multi-sensor calibration problems. Finally, simulations and real-world tests validate our approach.

cs.RO↗