Community Time-Activity Trajectory Modelling based on Markov Chain Simulation and Dirichlet Regression

Abstract

Accurate modeling of human time-activity trajectory is essential to support community resilience and emergency response strategies such as daily energy planning and urban seismic vulnerability assessment. However, existing modeling of time-activity trajectory is only driven by socio-demographic information with identical activity trajectories shared among the same group of people and neglects the influence of the environment. To further improve human time-activity trajectory modeling, this paper constructs community time-activity trajectory and analyzes how social-demographic and built environment influence people s activity trajectory based on Markov Chains and Dirichlet Regression. We use the New York area as a case study and gather data from American Time Use Survey, Policy Map, and the New York City Energy & Water Performance Map to evaluate the proposed method. To validate the regression model, Box s M Test and T-test are performed with 80% data training the model and the left 20% as the test sample. The modeling results align well with the actual human behavior trajectories, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed method. It also shows that both social-demographic and built environment factors will significantly impact a community's time-activity trajectory. Specifically, 1) Diversity and median age both have a significant influence on the proportion of time people assign to education activity. 2) Transportation condition affects people s activity trajectory in the way that longer commute time decreases the proportion of biological activity (eg. sleeping and eating) and increases people s working time. 3) Residential density affects almost all activities with a significant p-value for all biological needs, household management, working, education, and personal preference.