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arXiv · 2301.13793

Protecting the Texas power grid from tropical cyclones: Increasing resilience by protecting critical lines

Julian Stürmer·Anton Plietzsch·Thomas Vogt·Frank Hellmann·Jürgen Kurths·Christian Otto·Katja Frieler·Mehrnaz Anvari
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Abstract

The Texan electric network in the Gulf Coast of the United States is frequently hit by Tropical Cyclones (TC) causing widespread power outages, a risk that is expected to substantially increase under global warming. Here, we introduce a new approach of combining a probabilistic line fragility model with a network model of the Texas grid to simulate the temporal evolution of wind-induced failures of transmission lines and the resulting cascading power outages from seven major historical hurricanes. The approach allows reproducing observed supply failures. In addition, compared to a static approach, it provides a significant advantage in identifying critical lines whose failure can trigger large supply shortages. We show that protecting only 1% of total lines can reduce the likelihood of the most destructive type of outages by a factor of between 5 and 20. The proposed modelling approach could represent a tool so far missing to effectively strengthen the power grids against future hurricane risks even under limited knowledge.

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Julian Stürmer, Anton Plietzsch, Thomas Vogt, Frank Hellmann, Jürgen Kurths, Christian Otto, Katja Frieler, Mehrnaz Anvari. 2023-01-24. Protecting the Texas power grid from tropical cyclones: Increasing resilience by protecting critical lines. https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.13793

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