Scenario-based Optimization Models for Power Grid Resilience to Extreme Flooding Events

Abstract

We propose two scenario-based optimization models for power grid resilience decision making that integrate output from a hydrology model with a power flow model. The models are used to identify an optimal substation hardening strategy against potential flooding from storms for a given investment budget, which if implemented enhances the resilience of the power grid, minimizing the power demand that is shed. The same models can alternatively be used to determine the optimal budget that should be allocated for substation hardening when long-term forecasts of storm frequency and impact (specifically restoration times) are available. The two optimization models differ in terms of capturing risk attitude: one minimizes the average load shed for given scenario probabilities and the other minimizes the worst-case load shed without needing scenario probabilities. To demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed models, we further develop a case study for the Texas Gulf Coast using storm surge maps developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and a synthetic power grid for the state of Texas developed as part of an ARPA-E project. For a reasonable choice of parameters, we show that a scenario-based representation of uncertainty can offer a significant improvement in minimizing load shed as compared to using point estimates or average flood values. We further show that when the available investment budget is relatively high, solutions that minimize the worst-case load shed can offer several advantages as compared to solutions obtained from minimizing the average load shed. Lastly, we show that even for relatively low values of load loss and short post-hurricane power restoration times, it is optimal to make significant investments in substation hardening to deal with the storm surge considered in the NOAA flood scenarios.