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arXiv · 2305.02488

Optimal rewiring in coupled opinion and epidemic dynamics with vaccination

Andre Oestereich·Marcelo Pires·Nuno Crokidakis·Daniel Cajueiro
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Abstract

In this work, we study an epidemic model with vaccination coupled with opinion dynamics in a dynamic network. The network structure evolves as agents with differing opinions disconnect from one another and connect with agents that share similar opinions about vaccination. We consider a SIS-like model with an extra vaccinated state. Agents can have continuous opinions and every time an agent disconnects from a neighbor, they connect to a new neighbor. We have observed the emergence of network homophily and, in certain cases, the complete fragmentation of the network. Our Monte Carlo simulations also show first-order phase transitions with metastable states. An increase in the probability of rewiring yields a dual effect, namely: (a) in the short term, it has the potential to intensify the epidemic peak; (b) in the long term, it can diminish the rate of infection. This transient increase in the epidemic peak is attributed to the fragmentation of the network into smaller, disconnected sub-networks. Therefore, our results suggest that rewiring is optimal when it is as high as possible but before the network starts breaking apart.

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Andre Oestereich, Marcelo Pires, Nuno Crokidakis, Daniel Cajueiro. 2023-05-04. Optimal rewiring in coupled opinion and epidemic dynamics with vaccination. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2023.114125

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