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arXiv · 2305.03469

Data-inspired modeling of accidents in traffic flow networks using the Hawkes process

Simone Göttlich·Thomas Schillinger
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Abstract

We consider hyperbolic partial differential equations (PDEs) for a dynamic description of the traffic behavior in road networks. These equations are coupled to a Hawkes process that models traffic accidents taking into account their self-excitation property which means that accidents are more likely in areas in which another accident just occurred. We discuss how both model components interact and influence each other. A data analysis reveals the self-excitation property of accidents and determines further parameters. Numerical simulations using risk measures underline and conclude the discussion of traffic accident effects in our model.

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Simone Göttlich, Thomas Schillinger. 2023-05-05. Data-inspired modeling of accidents in traffic flow networks using the Hawkes process. https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.03469

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