COVID-19 risk-perception in long-distance travel

Abstract

Long-distance travel has seen little attention in the past, largely due its sporadic nature. A single long-distance trip can amount to a distance equivalent to a year's worth of commute trips, resulting in a similar, if not worse, environmental footprint. Understanding travellers' behaviour is thus just as relevant for such trips. As international travel is slowly picking up from the COVID-19 pandemic, it has been marred by an abundance of national and regional pandemic-related safety measures. While their primary goal is to protect the local population from infection, these safety may also make travellers feel safer while travelling. This perceived safety can - and likely does - differ from the true efficacy of the measures. In this research, we investigate people's perception of eight COVID-19-related safety measures related to long-distance trips and how subjective perception of safety impacts their mode choice among car, train and aircraft. We employ a Hierarchical Information Integration (HII) approach to capture subjective perceptions and then model the obtained data by means of a Latent Class Choice Model, resulting in four distinct segments. To extrapolate the segments onto the rating experiment of HII, we apply a weighted least squares (WLS) regression, to obtain segment-specific safety perception. Two segments show a relatively high value-of-time (72EUR/h and 50EUR/h), tend to be more mode-agnostic and prefer determining the level of risk by themselves (relying primarily on infection and vaccination rate). The remaining two segments have a lower value-of-time (38EUR / h and 15EUR/h) and have strong mode affinity, for the train and car respectively. Future research could look into a way that segments the sample based on both the mode choice and rating experiment, providing additional insights into the heterogeneity of individuals in their perceptions.