Search arXivSearch

arXiv · 2306.16380

Space Weather Effects on Critical Infrastructure

Abstract

Gas pipelines, transmission lines, overhead wires, transformers, GNSS navigation, and telecommunication systems are part of critical infrastructure. Industry, transportation, service operations, farming, and everyday life highly depend on this infrastructure. However, these systems are very sensitive to solar activity. Therefore, all activities above are vulnerable and defenseless against the catastrophic changes in Earth's cosmic environment. The Solar System is dominated by the influence of our star. A small fraction of the energy produced in the core of our star turns into a magnetic field and emits the constant high-velocity flow, the solar wind. Solar magnetic activity produces radiation and ejects matter from the upper atmosphere of our star. The magnetic field of the solar wind interacts with the planetary magnetic fields and atmospheres. These phenomena, called Space Weather have a serious influence on the radiation environment of Earth where telecommunication, Global Navigation Satellite System, meteorological, and other purpose satellites are located. The conductivity and transparency of the higher partly ionized atmospheric layer, the ionosphere also depend on solar radiation and activity. This fact makes the navigation and communication systems dependent on solar activity. Finally, the solar magnetic activity creates magnetic variations in the terrestrial magnetic field and induces currents in gas pipelines, transmission lines, overhead wires, and transformers. In this short briefing, we introduce the solar activity phenomena, and their influence on our planet's cosmic neighborhood and provide a detailed description of the Space Weather effects on critical infrastructure. We describe the Hungarian national and global space weather forecast centers and capabilities. Finally, we share some guidelines on how to prepare for extreme space weather events.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Gabor Facsko, Gergely Koban, Nikolett Biro, Munkhjargal Lkhagvadorj. 2023-07-05. Space Weather Effects on Critical Infrastructure. https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.16380

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

First Observation of a Polar Coronal Hole-like Fast Solar Wind Stream in the Sub-Alfvénic Solar Corona: an Analysis of Turbulence Properties

Parker Solar Probe, near its 23rd perihelion in March 2025, sampled an extended interval of sub-Alfvénic solar wind likely originating from a large equatorial coronal hole. At heliocentric distances of approximately 10 solar radii, with speed mostly above 400 km/s, this interval is a first example of ``polar coronal hole-like (PCH-l) fast" solar wind observed in the sub-Alfvénic solar corona. We characterize the turbulence properties of this unique interval using Parker Solar Probe measurements. Despite being sampled well inside the nominal Alfvén surface, the turbulence appears to be already well developed while remaining strongly transverse and highly imbalanced, exhibiting a large cross helicity. These observations provide new constraints on the development and evolution of solar wind turbulence within the lower corona.

physics.space-ph

Coordinate Systems and Transforms in Space Physics: Terms, Definitions, Implementations, and Recommendations for Reproducibility

In space physics, acronyms for coordinate systems (e.g., \texttt{GEI}, \texttt{GSM}) are commonly used; however, differences in their definitions and implementations can prevent reproducibility. In this work, we compare definitions in online resources, software packages, and frequently cited journal articles and show that implementation differences can lead to transformations between same-named coordinate systems and position values from different data providers to differ significantly. Based on these comparisons and results, and to enable reproducibility, we recommend that (a) a standard for acronyms and definitions for coordinate systems is developed, similar to equivalents in astronomy or earth sciences; (b) a standards body develops a citable database of reference data needed for these transforms. For software that computes coordinate transforms, we also recommend that their developers provide explicit comparisons of their implementations with the results of (b) and documentation on implementation choices. Additionally, we provide recommendations for scientists and metadata developers to ensure that sufficient information is provided to enable reproducibility. Finally, we document that spacecraft positions from data providers can differ both because of differences in how they implemented transforms and because of differences in the original source of the position data, and provide recommendations to improve the documentation of spacecraft positional datasets.

physics.space-ph

Aurora Hunter: A Two-Stage Framework for Probabilistic Visibility Forecasting

Aurora visibility at a given location requires two physically distinct conditions to hold at once: aurora occurring overhead, governed by solar wind-magnetosphere coupling, and observing conditions that permit detection, governed by cloud cover and moonlight. Approaches that conflate the two weaken the space-weather signal and limit cross-site generalizability. We develop Aurora Hunter, a two-stage cascade that separates occurrence prediction from observing-condition assessment. Stage 1 uses 43 physics-driven features to predict P(aurora identifiable in all-sky images) via gradient-boosted trees trained on joint Tromso+Kiruna data (about 16,600 hours, 2015-2023). Stage 2 models P(unobscured image class | identifiable) with logistic regression on 15 observing-condition features, trained on hours with identifiable aurora. The cascade P(visible) = P(identifiable) x P(unobscured | identifiable) achieves retrospective ROC-AUC of 0.958 (Tromso test, 2019-2020) and 0.933 (independent Kiruna, 2024), improving on the occurrence stage used alone by +0.095 and +0.097. Transfer to Skibotn, the one station withheld entirely (2022-2025), is limited. SHAP analysis identifies magnetic local time, the Kp x nightside interaction and the three-hour mean Kp as the dominant features (44% of attribution), consistent with auroral oval physics. Hemisphere-wide occurrence maps combine the Stage 1 amplitude, on a clear-sky basis, with the Feldstein oval parameterization. By providing location-specific visibility probabilities with measured reliability rather than coarse geomagnetic indices, the framework links space weather research to practical observation planning. An operational proof of concept is available at https://aurora-hunter.onrender.com

physics.space-ph