Mathematical models of Plasmodium vivax transmission: a scoping review

Abstract

Plasmodium vivax is one of the most geographically widespread malaria parasites in the world due to its ability to remain dormant in the human liver as hypnozoites and subsequently reactivate after the initial infection (i.e. relapse infections). More than 80% of P. vivax infections are due to hypnozoite reactivation. Mathematical modelling approaches have been widely applied to understand P. vivax dynamics and predict the impact of intervention outcomes. In this article, we provide a scoping review of mathematical models that capture P. vivax transmission dynamics published between January 1988 and May 2023 to provide a comprehensive summary of the mathematical models and techniques used to model P. vivax dynamics. We aim to assist researchers working on P. vivax transmission and other aspects of P. vivax malaria by highlighting best practices in currently published models and highlighting where future model development is required. We provide an overview of the different strategies used to incorporate the parasite's biology, use of multiple scales (within-host and population-level), superinfection, immunity, and treatment interventions. In most of the published literature, the rationale for different modelling approaches was driven by the research question at hand. Some models focus on the parasites' complicated biology, while others incorporate simplified assumptions to avoid model complexity. Overall, the existing literature on mathematical models for P. vivax encompasses various aspects of the parasite's dynamics. We recommend that future research should focus on refining how key aspects of P. vivax dynamics are modelled, including spatial heterogeneity in exposure risk, the accumulation of hypnozoite variation, the interaction between P. falciparum and P. vivax, acquisition of immunity, and recovery under superinfection.