Stochastic niche-based models for the evolution of species

Abstract

There have been many studies to examine whether one trait is correlated with another trait across a group of present-day species (for example, do species with larger brains tend to have longer gestation times. Since the introduction of the phylogenetic comparative method some authors have argued that it is necessary to have a biologically realistic model to generate evolutionary trees that incorporates information about the ecological niche occupied by species. Price presented a simple model along these lines in 1997. He defined a two-dimensional niche space formed by two continuous-valued traits, in which new niches arise with trait values drawn from a bivariate normal distribution. When a new niche arises, it is occupied by a descendant species of whichever current species is closest in ecological niche space. In sequence, more species are then evolved from already-existing species to which they are ecologically closest. Here we explore ways of extending Price's adaptive radiation model. One extension is to increase the dimensionality of the niche space by considering more than two continuous traits. A second extension is to allow both extinction of species (which may leave unoccupied niches) and removal of niches (which causes species occupying them to go extinct). To model this problem, we consider a continuous-time stochastic process which implicitly defines a phylogeny. To explore if trees generated under such a model (or under different parametrizations of the model) are realistic we can compute a variety of summary statistics that can be compared to those of empirically observed phylogenies. For example, there are existing statistics that aim to measure: tree balance, the relative rate of diversification, and phylogenetic signal of traits.