Dynamics of a two-strain epidemic model with waning immunity -- a perturbative approach

Abstract

Many infectious diseases are comprised of multiple strains with examples including Influenza, tuberculosis, and Dengue virus. The time evolution of such systems is linked to a complex landscape shaped by interactions between competing strains. Possible long-term dynamics include the extinction of less competitive strains, convergence to multi-strain steady-states, or self-sustained oscillations. This work considers a two-strain epidemic model in which the strains can interact indirectly via the immunity response generated following infections, and in which this immune response wanes with time. In particular, we focus on scenarios where the rate of waning immunity is significantly faster than the rate of demographic turnover. The first key result of this study is the explicit computation of the steady states of the nonlinear system of seven equations. Following this result, we take advantage of the separation of time scales in the problem and use perturbation methods to analyze the stability of the fixed points. In particular, we establish the conditions under which the system gives rise to the coexistence of the two strains and whether coexistence is attained via convergence to an endemic steady-state or via self-sustained oscillations. Our study unveils two parameter regimes of distinct qualitative behavior of the system and characterizes the separatrix between them. Within the first regime, the system gives rise to oscillatory coexistence for all feasible conditions. In the second regime, the system's behavior is governed by a solution to a quadratic equation, potentially resulting in the convergence to a multi-strain endemic equilibrium or the persistence of oscillatory coexistence.