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arXiv · 2402.06639

Social Vulnerabilities and Wildfire Evacuations: A Case Study of the 2019 Kincade Fire

Yuran Sun·Ana Forrister·Erica D. Kuligowski·Ruggiero Lovreglio·Thomas J. Cova·Xilei Zhao
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Abstract

Vulnerable populations are disproportionately impacted by natural hazards like wildfires. It is crucial to develop equitable and effective evacuation strategies to meet their unique needs. While existing studies offer valuable insights, we need to improve our understanding of how vulnerabilities affect wildfire evacuation decision-making, as well as how this varies spatially. The goal of this study is to conduct an in-depth analysis of the impacts of social vulnerabilities on aggregated evacuation decisions, including evacuation rates, delay in departure time, and evacuation destination distances by leveraging large-scale GPS data. Specifically, we inferred evacuation decisions at the census block group level, utilizing GPS data. We then employed ordinary least squares and geographically weighted regression models to investigate the impacts of social vulnerabilities on evacuation decisions. We also used Moran's I to test if these impacts were consistent across different block groups. The 2019 Kincade Fire in Sonoma County, California, was used as the case study. The impacts of social vulnerabilities on evacuation rates show significant spatial variations across block groups, whereas their effects on the other two decision types do not. Additionally, unemployment, a factor under-explored in previous studies, was found to negatively impact both the delay in departure time and destination distances of evacuees at the aggregate level. Furthermore, upon comparing the significant factors across different models, we observed that some of the vulnerabilities influencing evacuation rates for all residents differed from those affecting the delay in departure time and destination distances, which only applied to evacuees. These new insights can guide emergency managers and transportation planners to enhance equitable wildfire evacuation planning and operations.

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Yuran Sun, Ana Forrister, Erica D. Kuligowski, Ruggiero Lovreglio, Thomas J. Cova, Xilei Zhao. 2024-01-23. Social Vulnerabilities and Wildfire Evacuations: A Case Study of the 2019 Kincade Fire. https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.06639

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