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arXiv · 2402.14626

Self-Arresting and Runaway Earthquakes:Nucleation, Propagation, Gutenberg-Richter law and Dragon-King Events

Didier Sornette·Xueting Wei·Xiaofei Chen
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Abstract

We develop a dissipation-based framework for earthquake rupture on homogeneous faults that explicitly separates the onset of unstable slip from the conditions required for self-sustained rupture propagation. This distinction explains the coexistence of self-arresting earthquakes and run-away ruptures (subshear and supershear events) observed in numerical simulations and empirical studies. We identify two distinct characteristic fault sizes: a nucleation radius controlling the instability of slip, and in general a larger propagation radius controlling whether an unstable rupture can be energetically sustained. Ruptures initiated above the nucleation scale but below the propagation scale spontaneously arrest. We further derive the Gutenberg-Richter law for self-arresting earthquakes by linking rupture physics to the fractal geometry of faulting. Finally, we interpret run-away ruptures as extreme events generated by an amplifying mechanism, consistent with the dragon-king concept. These results provide a unified physical basis for earthquake initiation, arrest, and seismicity statistics.

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Didier Sornette, Xueting Wei, Xiaofei Chen. 2024-02-22. Self-Arresting and Runaway Earthquakes:Nucleation, Propagation, Gutenberg-Richter law and Dragon-King Events. https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.14626

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