A Multi-Model Ensemble System for the outer Heliosphere (MMESH): Solar Wind Conditions near Jupiter

Abstract

How the solar wind influences the magnetospheres of the outer planets is a fundamentally important question, but is difficult to answer in the absence of consistent, simultaneous monitoring of the upstream solar wind and the large-scale dynamics internal to the magnetosphere. To compensate for the relative lack of in-situ data, propagation models are often used to estimate the ambient solar wind conditions at the outer planets for comparison to remote observations or in-situ measurements. This introduces another complication: the propagation of near-Earth solar wind measurements introduces difficult-to-assess uncertainties. Here, we present the Multi-Model Ensemble System for the outer Heliosphere (MMESH) to begin to address these issues, along with the resultant multi-model ensemble (MME) of the solar wind conditions near Jupiter. MMESH accepts as input any number of solar wind models together with contemporaneous in-situ spacecraft data. From these, the system characterizes typical uncertainties in model timing, quantifies how these uncertainties vary under different conditions, attempts to correct for systematic biases in the input model timing, and composes a MME with uncertainties from the results. For the case of the Jupiter-MME presented here, three solar wind propagation models were compared to in-situ measurements from the near-Jupiter spacecraft Ulysses and Juno which span diverse geometries and phases of the solar cycle, amounting to more than 14,000 hours of data over 2.5 decades. The MME gives the most-probable near-Jupiter solar wind conditions for times within the tested epoch, outperforming the input models and returning quantified estimates of uncertainty.