ForTune: Running Offline Scenarios to Estimate Impact on Business Metrics

Georges Dupret; Konstantin Sozinov; Carmen Barcena Gonzalez; Ziggy Zacks; Amber Yuan; Benjamin Carterette; Manuel Mai; Shubham Bansal; Gwo Liang Leo Lien; Andrey Gatash; Roberto Sanchis Ojeda; Mounia Lalmas

arXiv · 2403.00133

ForTune: Running Offline Scenarios to Estimate Impact on Business Metrics

Georges Dupret·Konstantin Sozinov·Carmen Barcena Gonzalez·Ziggy Zacks·Amber Yuan·Benjamin Carterette·Manuel Mai·Shubham Bansal·Gwo Liang Leo Lien·Andrey Gatash·Roberto Sanchis Ojeda·Mounia Lalmas

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Abstract

Making ideal decisions as a product leader in a web-facing company is extremely difficult. In addition to navigating the ambiguity of customer satisfaction and achieving business goals, one must also pave a path forward for ones' products and services to remain relevant, desirable, and profitable. Data and experimentation to test product hypotheses are key to informing product decisions. Online controlled experiments by A/B testing may provide the best data to support such decisions with high confidence, but can be time-consuming and expensive, especially when one wants to understand impact to key business metrics such as retention or long-term value. Offline experimentation allows one to rapidly iterate and test, but often cannot provide the same level of confidence, and cannot easily shine a light on impact on business metrics. We introduce a novel, lightweight, and flexible approach to investigating hypotheses, called scenario analysis, that aims to support product leaders' decisions using data about users and estimates of business metrics. Its strengths are that it can provide guidance on trade-offs that are incurred by growing or shifting consumption, estimate trends in long-term outcomes like retention and other important business metrics, and can generate hypotheses about relationships between metrics at scale.

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Georges Dupret, Konstantin Sozinov, Carmen Barcena Gonzalez, Ziggy Zacks, Amber Yuan, Benjamin Carterette, Manuel Mai, Shubham Bansal, Gwo Liang Leo Lien, Andrey Gatash, Roberto Sanchis Ojeda, Mounia Lalmas. 2025-01-28. ForTune: Running Offline Scenarios to Estimate Impact on Business Metrics. https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.00133

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