A mechanistic model for smallpox transmission via inhaled aerosols inside respiratory pathways

Saikat Basu; Abir Malakar; Mohammad Mehedi Hasan Akash

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arXiv · 2403.04064

A mechanistic model for smallpox transmission via inhaled aerosols inside respiratory pathways

Saikat Basu·Abir Malakar·Mohammad Mehedi Hasan Akash

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Abstract

Investigations on airborne transmission of pathogens constitute a rapidly expanding field, primarily focused on understanding the expulsion patterns of respiratory particulates from infected hosts and their dispersion in confined spaces. Largely overlooked has been the crucial role of fluid dynamics in guiding inhaled virus-laden particulates within the respiratory cavity, thereby directing the pathogens to the infection-prone upper airway sites. Here, we discuss a multi-scale approach for modeling the onset parameters of airway infection based on flow physics. The findings are backed by Large Eddy Simulations of inhaled airflow and computed trajectories of pathogen-bearing aerosols/droplets within two clinically healthy and anatomically realistic airway geometries reconstructed from computed tomography imaging. As a representative anisotropic pathogen that can transmit aerially, we have picked smallpox from the Poxviridae family to demonstrate the approach. The fluid dynamics findings on inhaled transmission trends are integrated with virological and epidemiological parameters for smallpox (e.g., viral concentration in host ejecta, physical properties of virions, and typical exposure durations) to establish the corresponding infectious dose (i.e., the number of virions potent enough to launch infection in an exposed subject) to be, at maximum, of the order of O(2), or more precisely 1 to 180. The projection agrees remarkably well with the known virological parameters for smallpox.

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Saikat Basu, Abir Malakar, Mohammad Mehedi Hasan Akash. 2024-03-06. A mechanistic model for smallpox transmission via inhaled aerosols inside respiratory pathways. https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.04064

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