Search arXivSearch

arXiv · 2404.01085

Analyzing Common Social and Physical Features of Flash-Flood Vulnerability Hotspots in Urban Areas

Abstract

Flash flooding events, with their intense and sudden nature, present unique challenges for disaster researchers and emergency planners. To quantify the extent to which hotspots of flash flooding share similar social and physical features, the research uses community scale crowdsourced data and k means clustering. Crowdsourced data offers the potential to allocate limited resources, to improve spatial understanding, and to minimize the future effects of natural hazards. The research evaluates the impacts of Tropical Storm Imelda on Houston Metropolitan and Hurricane Ida on New York City. It develops a combined flash flood impact index based on FEMA claims, 311 calls, and Waze traffic reports which is able to capture a combination of crowdsourced data for the societal impact of flash flooding. In addition, k means clustering offers an essential tool for evaluating attributes associated with flash flooding events by grouping data into k number clusters of features. Thus, k means clustering evaluates the significance of a community's socio demographic, social capital, and physical features to the combined flood impact index. To ensure accessibility and replicability to different types of communities, our research uses publicly available datasets to understand how socio demographic data, social capital, and physical connectivity and development affect flash flood resilience. The findings reveal the intricate relationships associated with flash flooding impact as a combination of socio demographic and physical features. For instance, the cluster with the highest scores of the flash flood impact index from Tropical Storm Imelda had the highest percentage of minority population and lower income while the cluster with the second highest score flash flood impact index had the highest percentage of impervious surface and number of POIs.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Allison Clarke, Natalie Coleman, Ali Mostafavi. 2024-04-02. Analyzing Common Social and Physical Features of Flash-Flood Vulnerability Hotspots in Urban Areas. https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.01085

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

Self-Reference in Large Language Models: The Introspection Threshold for Recursive Self-Improvement

The pursuit of self-evolving AI raises a critical question: when is autonomous self-improvement sustainable rather than degenerative? Drawing an analogy to von Neumann's complexity threshold for self-reproducing automata, we argue that sustainable recursive self-improvement in Large Language Models (LLMs) requires a functional analogue: introspection -- the system's capacity to simulate its own operations and target modifications. Grounded in Kleene's Second Recursion Theorem, we demonstrate the theoretical existence of such introspective programs. However, an empirical review reveals that while current LLMs exhibit quasi-introspection (e.g., partial metacognition), they fall short of true introspection due to structural bottlenecks: a lack of complete self-access, the feedforward nature of the Transformer, and computational class constraints that prevent fixed-point iteration. We conclude by outlining architectural paths to cross this complexity threshold and discussing the associated safety implications.

physics.soc-ph

Multilayer Analysis of the Global Trade Network

Global trade is more than a single network of aggregate flows. Beneath the observable exchange of products among economies lies a complex multilayer structure, formed by thousands of product-specific trade relationships that differ in their similarity, interdependence, and temporal evolution. Using the CEPII's BACI database, which records bilateral product-level trade flows between economies, we represent the global trade network from 1995 to 2024 as a temporal multilayer network, with economies as nodes and directed weighted trade flows as edges. To investigate product-level organisation and cross-layer similarity, temporal structural change, and the structural role of individual economies, we introduce a random-walk-based similarity measure that provides a unified framework for comparing weighted and directed trade layers. Our results show that the global trade network remains relatively stable over short periods but undergoes gradual structural change over longer timescales. We also find that similarity-based product communities only partially align with the official product taxonomy, indicating that products assigned to the same official category do not necessarily exhibit similar trade-network structures. Finally, we show that an economy's structural influence is not always determined by its trade volume. These results highlight the value of multilayer network analysis for revealing patterns in global trade that remain hidden at the aggregate level.

physics.soc-ph

Detectability limits of scaling laws

Power law scaling relations between size and output are central to quantitative theories of cities, organisms, and other complex systems. Competing theories predict scaling exponents that differ by small fractions, but there is no existing theory for verifying whether a given dataset can even distinguish exponents at the required resolution to address such discrepancies. Here we derive a resolution limit for scaling exponents, giving the smallest exponent difference that any method of analysis can detect. We find that the Hurst exponents governing the evolution of systems' sizes and deviations from the scaling law determine how long a record of growing systems must be before it can separate competing scaling theories. Empirical results suggest that many available data panels are insufficient for reliable scaling model selection.

physics.soc-ph