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arXiv · 2404.06626

Why is soccer so popular: Understanding underdog achievement and randomness in team ball sports

Luis Nunes Vicente·Thaksheel Alleck·Tommaso Giovannelli·Roman Mitchell·Ori Remen
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Abstract

In this paper, we examine team ball sports to investigate how the likelihood of weaker teams winning against stronger ones, referred to as underdog achievement, is influenced by inherent randomness factors that affect match outcomes in such sports. To address our research question, we collected data on match scores and computed corresponding team rankings from major international competitions for 12 popular team ball sports: basketball, cricket, field hockey, futsal, handball, ice hockey, lacrosse, roller hockey, rugby, soccer, volleyball, and water polo. Then, we developed an underdog achievement score to identify the sports with the highest occurrences of weaker teams prevailing over stronger ones, and we designed a randomness model consisting of factors that contribute to unexpected match outcomes within each sport. Our findings indicate that soccer is among the sports in which a weaker team is most likely to win. Through principal component analysis (PCA) and correlation analysis, we demonstrate that our randomness model can explain such a phenomenon, showing that the underdog achievement can be attributed to numerous factors that can randomly influence match outcomes.

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Luis Nunes Vicente, Thaksheel Alleck, Tommaso Giovannelli, Roman Mitchell, Ori Remen. 2024-04-09. Why is soccer so popular: Understanding underdog achievement and randomness in team ball sports. https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.06626

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