Chauhan Weighted Trajectory Analysis reduces sample size requirements and expedites time-to-efficacy signals in advanced cancer clinical trials

Utkarsh Chauhan; Daylen Mackey; John R. Mackey

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arXiv · 2405.02529

Chauhan Weighted Trajectory Analysis reduces sample size requirements and expedites time-to-efficacy signals in advanced cancer clinical trials

Utkarsh Chauhan·Daylen Mackey·John R. Mackey

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Abstract

As Kaplan-Meier (KM) analysis is limited to single unidirectional endpoints, most advanced cancer randomized clinical trials (RCTs) are powered for either progression free survival (PFS) or overall survival (OS). This discards efficacy information carried by partial responses, complete responses, and stable disease that frequently precede progressive disease and death. Chauhan Weighted Trajectory Analysis (CWTA) is a generalization of KM that simultaneously assesses multiple rank-ordered endpoints. We hypothesized that CWTA could use this efficacy information to reduce sample size requirements and expedite efficacy signals in advanced cancer trials. We performed 100-fold and 1000-fold simulations of solid tumour systemic therapy RCTs with health statuses rank ordered from complete response (Stage 0) to death (Stage 4). At increments of sample size and hazard ratio, we compared KM PFS and OS with CWTA for (i) sample size requirements to achieve a power of 0.8 and (ii) time-to-first significant efficacy signal. CWTA consistently demonstrated greater power, and reduced sample size requirements by 18% to 35% compared to KM PFS and 14% to 20% compared to KM OS. CWTA also expedited time-to-efficacy signals 2- to 6-fold. CWTA, by incorporating all efficacy signals in the cancer treatment trajectory, provides clinically relevant reduction in required sample size and meaningfully expedites the efficacy signals of cancer treatments compared to KM PFS and KM OS. Using CWTA rather than KM as the primary trial outcome has the potential to meaningfully reduce the numbers of patients, trial duration, and costs to evaluate therapies in advanced cancer.

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BibTeX RIS

Utkarsh Chauhan, Daylen Mackey, John R. Mackey. 2024-06-24. Chauhan Weighted Trajectory Analysis reduces sample size requirements and expedites time-to-efficacy signals in advanced cancer clinical trials. https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.02529

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