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arXiv · 2405.19986

Recent global temperature surge amplified by record-low planetary albedo

Helge F. Goessling·Thomas Rackow·Thomas Jung
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Abstract

In 2023, the global mean temperature soared to 1.48K above the pre-industrial level, surpassing the previous record by 0.17K. Previous best-guess estimates of known drivers including anthropogenic warming and the El Nino onset fall short by about 0.2K in explaining the temperature rise. Utilizing satellite and reanalysis data, we identify a record-low planetary albedo as the primary factor bridging this gap. The decline is caused largely by a reduced low-cloud cover in the northern mid-latitudes and tropics, in continuation of a multi-annual trend. Understanding how much of the low-cloud trend is due to internal variability, reduced aerosol concentrations, or a possibly emerging low-cloud feedback will be crucial for assessing the current and expected future warming.

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Helge F. Goessling, Thomas Rackow, Thomas Jung. 2024-05-30. Recent global temperature surge amplified by record-low planetary albedo. https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.19986

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