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arXiv · 2406.13016

Verhulst Equation and the Universal Pattern for the Global Population Growth

Agata Angelika Sojecka·Aleksandra Drozd-Rzoska
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Abstract

The global population growth from 10,000 BC to 2023 is discussed within the Verhulst scaling equation and its extensions framework. The analysis focuses on per the capita global population rate coefficient Gp(P)=[dP(t)/P(t)]/dt=dlnP(t)/d, which reveals two linear domains: from 700CE till 1966 and from 1966 till 2023. Such a pattern can be considered a universal reference for reliable scaling relations describing P(t) changes. It is also the distortions-sensitive test indicating domains of their applicability and yielding optimal values of parameters. For models recalling the Verhulst equation, a single pair of growth rate and system capacity coefficients (r,s) should describe global population rise in the mentioned periods. However, the Verhulst equation with such effective parameters does not describe P(t) changes. Notable is the new way of data preparation, based on collecting data from various sources and their numerical filtering to obtain a smooth set of optimal values enabling the derivative-based analysis. The analysis reveals links between P(t) changes and some historical and pre-historical references influencing the global scale.

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Agata Angelika Sojecka, Aleksandra Drozd-Rzoska. 2024-06-18. Verhulst Equation and the Universal Pattern for the Global Population Growth. https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.13016

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