Growth of Science: How long will the United States uphold its position?

Dipak Patra

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arXiv · 2407.10771

Growth of Science: How long will the United States uphold its position?

Dipak Patra

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Abstract

Policymakers often assess the growth of science in a country and compare it with that of other countries to set future planning for scientific research focusing on the sustainable development and economic growth of the country. Here, we study the growth of science for the period of 1996-2020 corresponding to the top fifty countries with the highest publications in 2020. It is found that the annual growth rates of scientific and technical journal publications exhibit Taylor's power law behavior indicating the dependence of the variance on the mean growth rate and the distributions of annual growth rates follow skew-symmetric distributions. Furthermore, we have computed the entropy based on annual publication numbers among the countries to assess the spatial disparity in the system. The entropy is found to increase mostly linear with time reducing the disparity among the countries. By performing the linear regression analysis, we predict that around the year 2046, all the countries excluding China may equally contribute towards the growth of science. We have also assessed the stability of the current USA ranking by computing the entropy between the USA and other countries. Based on the regression analysis, it is estimated that three potential countries such as Indonesia, India, and Iran may take the ranks ahead of the USA around the years 2024, 2029, and 2041 respectively.

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Dipak Patra. 2024-07-15. Growth of Science: How long will the United States uphold its position?. https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.10771

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