Physical partisan proximity outweighs online ties in predicting US voting outcomes

Marco Tonin; Bruno Lepri; Michele Tizzoni

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arXiv · 2407.12146

Physical partisan proximity outweighs online ties in predicting US voting outcomes

Marco Tonin·Bruno Lepri·Michele Tizzoni

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Abstract

Affective polarization and increasing social divisions affect social mixing and the spread of information across online and physical spaces, reinforcing social and electoral cleavages and influencing political outcomes. Here, using individual survey data and aggregated and de-identified co-location and online network data, we investigate the relationship between partisan exposure and vote choice in the US by comparing offline and online dimensions of partisan exposure. By leveraging various statistical modeling approaches, we consistently find that partisan exposure in the physical space, as captured by co-location patterns, more accurately predicts electoral outcomes in US counties, outperforming online and residential exposures. Similarly, offline ties at the individual level better predict vote choice compared to online connections. We also estimate county-level experienced partisan segregation and examine its relationship with individuals' demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Focusing on metropolitan areas, our results confirm the presence of extensive partisan segregation in the US and show that offline partisan isolation, both considering physical encounters or residential sorting, is higher than online segregation and is primarily associated with educational attainment. Our findings emphasize the importance of physical space in understanding the relationship between social networks and political behavior, in contrast to the intense scrutiny focused on online social networks and elections.

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Marco Tonin, Bruno Lepri, Michele Tizzoni. 2025-10-03. Physical partisan proximity outweighs online ties in predicting US voting outcomes. https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.12146

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