Search arXivSearch

arXiv · 2407.18664

Assessment of environmental impacts from authorized discharges of tritiated water from the Fukushima site to coastal and offshore regions

Abstract

In August 2023, the long-planned discharging of radioactive wastewater from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) started after the confirmation of its feasibility and safety. As this water contains elevated amounts of tritium even after being diluted, a lot of resources have been invested in the monitoring of the Fukushima coastal region where the discharge outlet is located. We compare the first $^3$H surface activity concentrations from these measurements (up to the end of November 2023) with the available background values to evaluate a possible impact of the long-term discharging on humans and environmental levels of the radionuclide of interest in the same or nearby area. From our results, we can conclude that the joint effect of horizontal and vertical mixing has been significant enough to reduce tritium concentrations at the monitored locations in the region close to the FDNPP port two days after the end of the respective phase of the discharging beyond the detection limit of the applied analytical methods (~ 0.3 Bq L$^{-1}$) which is by five orders of magnitude lower than safety limit for drinking water set by the World Health Organization (WHO). Moreover, the distant correlation analysis showed that tritium concentrations at stations located further than 1.4 km were very close to pre-discharge levels (~ 0.4 Bq L$^{-1}$). We also estimated that the $^3$H activity concentration in the offshore Fukushima region would be elevated by 0.01 Bq L$^{-1}$ at maximum over a year of continuous discharging, which is in concordance with the already published modelling papers and much less than the impact of the FDNPP accident in 2011.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Jakub Kaizer, Katsumi Hirose, Pavel P. Povinec. 2024-07-26. Assessment of environmental impacts from authorized discharges of tritiated water from the Fukushima site to coastal and offshore regions. https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.18664

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

FAST-ML: A Hybrid Physics-Machine Learning Framework for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting

Rapid intensification (RI) remains one of the most consequential and difficult aspects of tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting. Although full-physics numerical weather prediction models can represent the processes governing RI, resolving storm-environment interactions remains computationally expensive, while purely data-driven approaches often lack physical interpretability. We present FAST-ML, a hybrid framework that bridges data-driven efficiency with physical constraints. A physically informed dual-stream neural parameterization ingests 3D ERA5 fields to diagnose ventilation controls---environmental wind shear and mid-level entropy deficit. By optimizing these parameters end-to-end through a differentiable FAST intensity model, this architecture establishes a robust new paradigm for observation-driven parameter optimization, ensuring storm evolution remains strictly governed by thermodynamic principles. By better capturing the storm's continuous intensity evolution, FAST-ML improves upon its physical baseline, reducing ensemble CRPS across forecast lead times, with a reduction of approximately 31% at 60 h and nearly halving the RI false alarm ratio without sacrificing detection skill. In a 100-member ensemble configuration, FAST-ML produces intensity forecasts comparable to FNV3 for selected storms under the evaluated input configurations. Furthermore, zero-shot tests on selected Eastern Pacific storms provide encouraging evidence of cross-basin transferability. FAST-ML provides a modular intensity forecasting framework that can be coupled with externally supplied storm tracks and environmental fields. It demonstrates that observation-driven parameter learning within physically constrained dynamics simultaneously enhances accuracy, interpretability, and computational efficiency.

physics.ao-ph

West-WRF AI 2-km: High-Resolution Prediction of Integrated Vapor Transport and Precipitation

We introduce a stretched-grid artificial intelligence (AI) weather forecasting model with 2-km resolution over the western United States and part of the Northeast Pacific and approximately 31-km resolution elsewhere globally. Forecasting over the western U.S. is challenging because complex topography and atmospheric rivers (ARs) strongly influence orographic precipitation. West-WRF AI 2-km builds on a global model pretrained with a 40-year European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) dataset and is fine-tuned with the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) 2-km regional reanalysis to produce autoregressive 6-hourly forecasts of precipitation and integrated vapor transport (IVT). Forecasts are evaluated over winters 2020-2023 using gridded precipitation observations, rain gauges, and AR Reconnaissance dropsondes and are benchmarked against coarser-resolution AI forecasts and regional and global numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. West-WRF AI 2-km reproduces observed precipitation-intensity distributions, retains fine-scale spectral variability, and produces sharper narrow coastal precipitation bands and localized, terrain-sensitive extremes. Its broader-scale performance remains comparable to coarser-resolution configurations while preserving large-scale skill despite higher resolution. Dropsonde verification shows lower errors and improved categorical skill at the most extreme IVT threshold. Overall, West-WRF AI 2-km provides its greatest value for localized precipitation extremes and intense AR-related moisture transport.

physics.ao-ph

Hydrological Constraints on Temperature Sensitivities of Precipitation Frequency and Intensity

To improve understanding of how precipitation frequency and intensity change with warming, we combine the coupled land--atmosphere water balance with a stochastic hydrological model that retains explicit dependence on precipitation frequency and event depth. We find a linear relationship between co-variations of rainfall frequency and intensity, where the slope is a hydrological sensitivity determined by the dryness and storage indices and the intercept is a forcing term associated with changes in moisture convergence, potential evapotranspiration, and effective water-storage capacity. While a given relative change in either rainfall frequency or intensity produces an identical relative change in the mean rate, rainfall intensity additionally influences the runoff coefficient by altering terrestrial water storage relative to rainfall depth. This means frequency and intensity have different impacts on the water cycle, allowing the frequency--intensity slope to depart from -1. Analysis of long-term MOPEX records shows that the forcing term is dominated by moisture convergence and that the frequency--intensity relation becomes steeper from wet to dry regimes, consistent with the slope predicted by the theory. The framework provides a physical interpretation of the observed negative covariation between precipitation frequency and intensity and clarifies the roles of hydrological partitioning and atmospheric moisture supply in their responses to warming.

physics.ao-ph