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arXiv · 2408.12422

Advancing Strategic Planning and Dynamic Control of Complex Projects

L. G. Teuber·H. J. van Heukelum·A. R. M. Wolfert
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Abstract

Strategic project planning and dynamic control are essential to ensure that complex projects are both prepared and executed best-fit-for-common-purpose, guided by three interrelated strategies: (1) Agreeing First, (2) Acting Feasibly, and (3) Adapting Flexibly. When these strategies become too complex for humans to fully conceive and manage, effective computer-aided decision support becomes crucial. However, standard simulation-driven evaluation and a-posteriori decision-making are typically single-sided and technically focused focus, rather than applying a combined simulation-and-optimisation approach that a-priori integrates stakeholder interests and their mitigation behavior. Moreover, current planning and control methodologies often lack robust stochastic representations and associative multi objective optimisation methods that capture the full socio-technical complexity while maximizing the potential within reach. This paper introduces Odycon (Open Design and Dynamic Control), a new purpose-driven project management methodology that provides an actionable solution to these challenges. It presents a generic mathematical framework for project planning and control that integrates stakeholder preferences (human domain) with system performances (physical domain), enabling more effective planning and dynamic control. Odycon integrates standard Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) with the novel Integrative Maximisation of Aggregated Preferences (IMAP) optimisation method to develop a best-fit strategic plan and the most effective mitigation control strategies. Its value is demonstrated through applications in offshore wind installation and highway infrastructure projects, showcasing advances in associative design and decision-making, and aiming for a best-fit-for-common-purpose synthesis across different complex project phases.

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L. G. Teuber, H. J. van Heukelum, A. R. M. Wolfert. 2024-08-22. Advancing Strategic Planning and Dynamic Control of Complex Projects. https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.12422

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