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arXiv · 2409.02891

Regional data-driven weather modeling with a global stretched-grid

Thomas Nils Nipen·Håvard Homleid Haugen·Magnus Sikora Ingstad·Even Marius Nordhagen·Aram Farhad Shafiq Salihi·Paulina Tedesco·Ivar Ambjørn Seierstad·Jørn Kristiansen·Simon Lang·Mihai Alexe·Jesper Dramsch·Baudouin Raoult·Gert Mertes·Matthew Chantry
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Abstract

A data-driven model (DDM) suitable for regional weather forecasting applications is presented. The model extends the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System by introducing a stretched-grid architecture that dedicates higher resolution over a regional area of interest and maintains a lower resolution elsewhere on the globe. The model is based on graph neural networks, which naturally affords arbitrary multi-resolution grid configurations. The model is applied to short-range weather prediction for the Nordics, producing forecasts at 2.5 km spatial and 6 h temporal resolution. The model is pre-trained on 43 years of global ERA5 data at 31 km resolution and is further refined using 3.3 years of 2.5 km resolution operational analyses from the MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS). The performance of the model is evaluated using surface observations from measurement stations across Norway and is compared to short-range weather forecasts from MEPS. The DDM outperforms both the control run and the ensemble mean of MEPS for 2 m temperature. The model also produces competitive precipitation and wind speed forecasts, but is shown to underestimate extreme events.

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Thomas Nils Nipen, Håvard Homleid Haugen, Magnus Sikora Ingstad, Even Marius Nordhagen, Aram Farhad Shafiq Salihi, Paulina Tedesco, Ivar Ambjørn Seierstad, Jørn Kristiansen, Simon Lang, Mihai Alexe, Jesper Dramsch, Baudouin Raoult, Gert Mertes, Matthew Chantry. 2024-09-04. Regional data-driven weather modeling with a global stretched-grid. https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.02891

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