Search arXivSearch

arXiv · 2409.03710

Inverse decision-making using neural amortized Bayesian actors

Abstract

Bayesian observer and actor models have provided normative explanations for many behavioral phenomena in perception, sensorimotor control, and other areas of cognitive science and neuroscience. They attribute behavioral variability and biases to interpretable entities such as perceptual and motor uncertainty, prior beliefs, and behavioral costs. However, when extending these models to more naturalistic tasks with continuous actions, solving the Bayesian decision-making problem is often analytically intractable. Inverse decision-making, i.e. performing inference over the parameters of such models given behavioral data, is computationally even more difficult. Therefore, researchers typically constrain their models to easily tractable components, such as Gaussian distributions or quadratic cost functions, or resort to numerical approximations. To overcome these limitations, we amortize the Bayesian actor using a neural network trained on a wide range of parameter settings in an unsupervised fashion. Using the pre-trained neural network enables performing efficient gradient-based Bayesian inference of the Bayesian actor model's parameters. We show on synthetic data that the inferred posterior distributions are in close alignment with those obtained using analytical solutions where they exist. Where no analytical solution is available, we recover posterior distributions close to the ground truth. We then show how our method allows for principled model comparison and how it can be used to disentangle factors that may lead to unidentifiabilities between priors and costs. Finally, we apply our method to empirical data from three sensorimotor tasks and compare model fits with different cost functions to show that it can explain individuals' behavioral patterns.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Dominik Straub, Tobias F. Niehues, Jan Peters, Constantin A. Rothkopf. 2025-01-31. Inverse decision-making using neural amortized Bayesian actors. https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.03710

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

Label Propagation for Physics-Informed Neural Networks and Physics-Informed Gaussian Processes

We present a series of empirical results of the application of semi-supervised label propagation techniques in training physics-informed machine learning methods. This includes self-training of physics-informed neural networks and physics-informed Gaussian processes in isolation, and the integration of the two via co-training, therefore establishing a hybrid between these two main classes of physics-informed machine learning. We demonstrate via extensive numerical experiments how these methods can ameliorate the issue of propagating information from boundaries into the physical domain, including information from initial conditions in the case of solving stiff time-dependent partial differential equations, which is known to be a common failure mode of physics-informed machine learning.

cs.LG

Multi-Armed Bernoulli Bandits via Minimax Single-Arm Stopping

We develop an index policy for finite-horizon Bernoulli multi-armed bandits from minimax solutions to single-arm bandit (SAB) problems. Each SAB problem involves choosing between an unknown Bernoulli arm and a known reward. We show that minimizing worst-case regret of SAB problems over all non-anticipative policies admits an exact semi-infinite linear programming formulation. The resulting stopping policies offer a natural way to compare arms: the higher the known reward against which a policy continues sampling, the more promising the unknown arm. We turn this intuition into indices based on cumulative continuation probabilities, with a monotone adjustment and a reward-shortfall cap. By relating index errors to the regret of single-arm stopping policies, we establish a distribution-free regret bound of $4.45\sqrt{KT}+10.75K$ for $K$ arms and horizon $T$. This bound matches the minimax-optimal regret order established in the literature. The guarantee extends to rewards supported on $[0,1]$ through Bernoulli randomization. We also provide a finite-grid implementation with quantified approximation loss. In numerical experiments, the SAB-based index policy achieves lower worst-case regret than every tested benchmark policy across all evaluated numbers of arms and horizons, while closely matching the grid-based MAB minimax policy in the two-arm setting.

cs.LG

Autonomous Model Lifecycle Management for Digital Twin-Based Manufacturing Control

Manufacturing AI systems must autonomously adapt to continuous distributional shift from raw-material variability, ambient changes, and equipment aging, under strict safeguard and operator-trust requirements where model failures risk physical damage. This paper presents a closed-loop Cyber-Physical System (CPS) for autonomous model lifecycle management in automotive manufacturing, deployed since 2023. The system manages product-specialized model pairs: a sequence-to-sequence physics model (LPP) serving as a digital twin, and a deep Reinforcement Learning (RL) control policy (LCP) trained against it. Per retraining cycle, multiple model variants spanning architecture families and RL algorithms compete; only the best-scoring candidate advances. A Conductor orchestrator autonomously manages plant-wide model inventories with dependency-aware retraining and Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) fallback. Reflecting the principle of Human-Centric Intelligence, the LCP composite score embeds an operator-trust gate penalizing policies deviating from established practice; without it, 23% of policies are rejected by operators despite passing accuracy thresholds. Across multiple facilities, LCP-controlled processes achieve process stability improvements of 28-45% over uncontrolled baselines with zero safety incidents.

cs.LG