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arXiv · 2410.10840

A discrete event simulator for policy evaluation in liver allocation in Eurotransplant

Hans de Ferrante·Marieke de Rosner-Van Rosmalen·Bart Smeulders·Frits C. R. Spieksma·Serge Vogelaar
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Abstract

We present the ELAS simulator, a discrete event simulator built for the Eurotransplant (ET) Liver Allocation System (ELAS). Eurotransplant uses ELAS to allocate deceased donor livers in eight European countries. The simulator is made publicly available to be transparent on which model Eurotransplant uses to evaluate liver allocation policies, and to facilitate collaborations with policymakers, scientists and other stakeholders in evaluating alternative liver allocation policies. This paper describes the design and modules of the ELAS simulator. One of the included modules is the obligation module, which is instrumental in ensuring that international cooperation in liver allocation benefits all ET member countries. By default, the ELAS simulator simulates liver allocation according to the actual ET allocation rules. Stochastic processes, such as graft offer acceptance behavior and listing for a repeat transplantation, are approximated with statistical models which were calibrated to data from the ET registry. We validate the ELAS simulator by comparing simulated waitlist outcomes to historically observed waitlist outcomes between 2016 and 2019. The modular design of the ELAS simulator gives end users maximal control over the rules and assumptions under which ET liver allocation is simulated, which makes the simulator useful for policy evaluation. We illustrate this with two clinically motivated case studies, for which we collaborated with hepatologists and transplantation surgeons from two liver advisory committees affiliated with Eurotransplant.

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Hans de Ferrante, Marieke de Rosner-Van Rosmalen, Bart Smeulders, Frits C. R. Spieksma, Serge Vogelaar. 2025-04-22. A discrete event simulator for policy evaluation in liver allocation in Eurotransplant. https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.10840

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