Estimating the epidemic threshold under individual vaccination behaviour and adaptive social connections: A game-theoretic complex network model

Abstract

Information dissemination intricately intertwines with the dynamics of infectious diseases in the contemporary interconnected world. Recognizing the critical role of public awareness, individual vaccination choices appear to be an essential factor in collective efforts against emerging health threats. This study aims to characterize disease transmission dynamics under evolving social connections, information sharing, and individual vaccination decisions. To address this important problem, we present an integrated behaviour-prevalence model on an adaptive multiplex network. While the physical layer (layer-II) focuses on disease transmission under vaccination, the virtual layer (layer-I), representing individuals' social contacts, is adaptive and deals with information dissemination, resulting in the dynamics of vaccination choice in a socially influenced environment. Utilizing the microscopic Markov Chain Method (MMCM), we derive analytical expressions of the epidemic threshold for populations with different levels of perceived vaccine risk. It indicates that the adaptive nature of social contacts contributes to the higher epidemic threshold compared to non-adaptive scenarios, and numerical simulations also support that. The network topology, such as the power-law exponent of a scale-free network, also significantly influences the spreading of infections in the network population. We also observe that vaccine uptake increases proportionately with the number of individuals with a higher perceived infection risk or a higher sensitivity of an individual to their non-vaccinated neighbours. As a result, our findings provide insights for public health officials in developing vaccination programs in light of the evolution of social connections, information dissemination, and vaccination choice in the digital era.