A KAN-based Interpretable Framework for Process-Informed Prediction of Global Warming Potential

Abstract

Accurate prediction of Global Warming Potential (GWP) is essential for assessing the environmental impact of chemical processes and materials. Traditional GWP prediction models rely predominantly on molecular structure, overlooking critical process-related information. In this study, we present an integrative GWP prediction model that combines molecular descriptors (MACCS keys and Mordred descriptors) with process information (process title, description, and location) to improve predictive accuracy and interpretability. Using a deep neural network (DNN) model, we achieved an R-squared of 86% on test data with Mordred descriptors, process location, and description information, representing a 25% improvement over the previous benchmark of 61%; XAI analysis further highlighted the significant role of process title embeddings in enhancing model predictions. To enhance interpretability, we employed a Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) to derive a symbolic formula for GWP prediction, capturing key molecular and process features and providing a transparent, interpretable alternative to black-box models, enabling users to gain insights into the molecular and process factors influencing GWP. Error analysis showed that the model performs reliably in densely populated data ranges, with increased uncertainty for higher GWP values. This analysis allows users to manage prediction uncertainty effectively, supporting data-driven decision-making in chemical and process design. Our results suggest that integrating both molecular and process-level information in GWP prediction models yields substantial gains in accuracy and interpretability, offering a valuable tool for sustainability assessments. Future work may extend this approach to additional environmental impact categories and refine the model to further enhance its predictive reliability.