Unraveling 20th-century political regime dynamics using the physics of diffusion

Abstract

Uncertainty persists over how and why some countries become democratic and others do not, or why some countries remain democratic and others 'backslide' toward autocracy. Furthermore, while scholars generally agree on the nature of 'democracy' and 'autocracy', the nature of regimes in-between, and changes between them, are much less clear. By applying the spectral dimensionality-reduction technique Diffusion Map to political-science data from the V-Dem project for the period 1900 to 2021, we identify a low-dimensional non-linear manifold on which all electoral regimes move. Using the diffusion equation from statistical physics, we measure the time scale on which countries change their degree of electoral quality, freedom of association, and freedom of expression depending on their position on the manifold. By quantifying the coefficients of the diffusion equation for each country and over time, we show that democracies behave like sub-diffusive (i.e. slow spreading) particles and that autocracies on the verge of collapse behave like super-diffusive (i.e. fast spreading) particles. We show that regimes in-between exhibit diffusion dynamics distinct from autocracies and democracies, and an overall higher instability. Furthermore, we show that a country's position on the manifold and its dynamics are linked to its propensity for civil conflict. Our study pioneers the use of statistical physics in the analysis of political regimes. Our results provide a quantitative foundation for developing theories about what changes during democratization and democratic backsliding, as well as a new framework for regime-transformation and risk-of-conflict assessment.