Search arXiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2412.15808

Deep learning joint extremes of metocean variables using the SPAR model

Ed Mackay·Callum Murphy-Barltrop·Jordan Richards·Philip Jonathan
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

This paper presents a novel deep learning framework for estimating multivariate joint extremes of metocean variables, based on the Semi-Parametric Angular-Radial (SPAR) model. When considered in polar coordinates, the problem of modelling multivariate extremes is transformed to one of modelling an angular density, and the tail of a univariate radial variable conditioned on angle. In the SPAR approach, the tail of the radial variable is modelled using a generalised Pareto (GP) distribution, providing a natural extension of univariate extreme value theory to the multivariate setting. In this work, we show how the method can be applied in higher dimensions, using a case study for five metocean variables: wind speed, wind direction, wave height, wave period, and wave direction. The angular variable is modelled using a kernel density method, while the parameters of the GP model are approximated using fully-connected deep neural networks. Our approach provides great flexibility in the dependence structures that can be represented, together with computationally efficient routines for training the model. Furthermore, the application of the method requires fewer assumptions about the underlying distribution(s) compared to existing approaches, and an asymptotically justified means for extrapolating outside the range of observations. Using various diagnostic plots, we show that the fitted models provide a good description of the joint extremes of the metocean variables considered.

Explore related subjects

stat.MLcs.LGstat.ME

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Ed Mackay, Callum Murphy-Barltrop, Jordan Richards, Philip Jonathan. 2025-09-15. Deep learning joint extremes of metocean variables using the SPAR model. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4069999

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Conditional Distributional Treatment Effects: Doubly Robust Estimation and Testing

Beyond conditional average treatment effects, treatments may impact the entire outcome distribution in covariate-dependent ways, for example, by altering the variance or tail risks for specific subpopulations. We propose a novel estimand to capture such conditional distributional treatment effects, and develop a doubly robust estimator that is minimax optimal in the local asymptotic sense. Using this, we develop a test for the global homogeneity of conditional potential outcome distributions that accommodates discrepancies beyond the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), has provably valid type 1 error, and is consistent against fixed alternatives---the first test, to our knowledge, with such guarantees in this setting. We then provide a test that aggregates evidence across a grid of kernel-bandwidth choices. Furthermore, we derive exact closed-form expressions for two natural discrepancies (including the MMD), and provide a computationally efficient, permutation-free algorithm for our test.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Flow Matching for Count Data

High-dimensional count data arise in applications such as single-cell RNA sequencing and neural spike trains, where mappings between distributions across successive batches or time points form critical components of data analysis. The recent success of diffusion- and flow-based deep generative models for images, video, and text motivates extending these ideas to count-valued settings, but many existing methods either treat each count as a categorical state or transform counts into a continuous space, neither of which is natural or efficient when the count range is large. We propose count-FM, a flow-matching framework for count data based on a continuous-time birth-death process with local unit jumps. Count-FM learns marginal transitions efficiently in count space through simulation-free training of conditional transition rates, allowing transport between arbitrary count-distributed source and target populations. In simulation, count-FM variants achieve strong sample quality while using substantially fewer parameters. We further apply count-FM to scRNA-seq and neural spike-train data for unconditional generation, transport, and conditional generation. Across these tasks, count-FM yields improved sample quality, greater modeling efficiency, and interpretable transport paths.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Chaos Is a LADDER: Domain Generalization Beyond Invariance via Reweighting

Domain generalization (DG) aims to learn from multiple source domains and generalize to unseen target domains. Most DG methods pursue invariance: they seek a causal representation whose prediction rule is invariant across domains. This principle is effective when the causal mechanism is stable, but becomes restrictive when the domain itself modulates how causal content maps to the response. In this case, directly feeding domain style into the predictor can create misleading shortcuts, since style does not by itself cause the response. Yet the apparent chaos of multiple styles can become a ladder: style can locate the unseen target domain among source domains and guide which domain-dependent prediction rules should be trusted. We propose \emph{Latent Adaptive Domain Disentanglement and Environment Reweighting} (LADDER), a fixed-model DG pipeline that learns causal/style representations, freezes the encoders, fits source-specific classifiers, and uses an unlabeled target-domain covariate set only at inference to compute weights over these fixed classifiers, with no target labels or model-state updates. We establish theoretical guarantees for source reweighting and validate LADDER on simulations, FMoW, and a location-grouped iWildCam protocol, with gains in overall and group-averaged accuracy.

stat.ML↗