The third moment of the logarithm of zeta and a twisted pair correlation conjecture

Abstract

We prove precise conditional estimates for the third moment of the logarithm of the Riemann zeta function, refining what is implied by the Selberg central limit theorem, both for the real and imaginary parts. These estimates match predictions made in work of Keating and Snaith. We require the Riemann Hypothesis, a conjecture for the triple correlation of Riemann zeros and another ``twisted'' pair correlation conjecture which explains the interaction of a prime power with Montgomery's pair correlation function. We believe this to be of independent interest, and devote substantial effort to its justification. Namely, we prove this conjecture on a certain range unconditionally, and on a larger range under the assumption of a variant of the Hardy-Littlewood conjecture with good uniformity.