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arXiv · 2501.00058

European Defence Readiness

d'Artis Kancs
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Abstract

The preparedness and readiness of Europe is currently being challenged not only by Russia, but since recently also by its long-standing allies. In response to the evolving external security environment, the EU's White Paper on European Defence Readiness 2030 outlines the key defence issues in Europe - including critical capability gaps of forces, challenges of the defence industry such as fragmented defence market and military mobility. Leveraging an empirically validated general equilibrium multi-sector model with ambiguity and risk, this study assesses how prepared is Europe to address protracted conflicts and systemic shocks. Exploring what strategies could enhance European readiness, scenario analysis of a hypothetical total trade war imply that today's existing problems will only be amplified by systemic shocks, if not addressed timely and in a targeted way.

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d'Artis Kancs. 2025-11-05. European Defence Readiness. https://doi.org/10.1080/14751798.2025.2531708

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